The IPCC stated clearly last year that to achieve ‘net zero emissions by 2050’ we must reach a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030. And, those emissions must peak by 2025. Even then we will almost certainly be destined to go above 1.5 degrees by 2050 – there is too much post-industrial greenhouse gas out there already. It takes about 100 years for that to go away. Furthermore, remember that 1.5 degrees is simply a tolerable level for human life, but it will still deliver cataclysmic extreme weather.
While the aviation and tourism leaders have jumped on the 2050 Net Zero bandwagon, and some even the 2030 waypoint, they have collectively sidestepped the 2025 peak point. While the CORSIA-led game-plan sounds great, with lots of PR hype, isn’t it the case that overall air transport emissions are forecast to increase until at least 2030? To get there will require offsets, already being called out around the world as worthless.
Yes, I know aviation plus tourism still accounts for less than 10% of greenhouse gas emissions and aviation alone is closer to 3% – but I also know it is increasing quite rapidly. Small percentages are still significant in terms of impacts on human wellbeing. Plus, I see no precautionary principle thinking being applied. We have no plan B. Aren’t the intensifying mega floods, wildfires, droughts, polar tipping points and thousands of climate refugees enough of a message? Isn’t it time for some bold airline or airport CEO to step out from the herd and face up to the inconvenient truth?
In a Royal Aeronautical Society Assad Kotaite Memorial lecture a couple of years ago, I suggested the need for a Kennedy-esque ‘moonshot’ for clean aviation. A collective effort by governments, industry, manufacturers and fuel suppliers. This was half delivered at ICAO last year, with a long-term target – albeit with a ‘net’ get out of jail free card. Now we need the other half. The short term 2025 Peak. It is not enough for airlines to predict 97% of emission reduction in 2030 will be from offsets. We need dramatically more SAF by 2025. Plus, a guaranteed answer for the world’s poorest countries who have contributed the least emissions and are particularly dependent on tourism for their just development.
Fossil fuel companies have been making billion dollars profits a day since the 1970’s – while knowing the climate impacts. They can spend some of that blood money to hyper accelerate SAF production. This is not a technology issue – it is a capacity and mindset one. And if it’s significantly costlier, so be it… If we don’t beat the climate crisis, increased air fares will be the least of our worries. If the SAF isn’t there fast enough, or plentifully enough, maybe – oh heresy – some flights will have to be curtailed. Airlines can do that unilaterally. Governments can make it happen too. Airports might just have to say no to more expansion for polluting aircraft, rather than pretend their responsibility stops at the terminal, while proclaiming their green leadership credentials.
In calling for radical action to address the 2025 IPCC red flag, I feel like the Trojan prophet Cassandra, who was doomed (by a jilted God) to make correct forecasts that no one believed or acted on.
I hope, for the sake of all our grandkids, I am wrong. Start writing today. Use the button below to create your Substack and connect your publication with AIR Select